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Weekly Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016

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Weekly Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016

Weekly Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016
May 30
10:00 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which can be considered as 100% fulfilled:

  • if we talk about the forecast for the pair EUR / USD, the majority of experts and indicators insisted that it should go down at least to the level of 1.1100, which the pair did, ending the week only 10 points higher – at around 1.1110;
  • as for the medium-term forecast for GBP / USD, the technical and graphical analysis suggested the continuation of the movement of this pair in the ascending channel, which had begun in February this year. According to the forecast, which was supported by 65% of the experts, the ultimate goal is the high of 1.1500. At the same time, at the beginning of the last week there were doubts regarding the behavior of the pair. In particular, what role did the level of 1.4500 play: the local support or resistance? As a result, these doubts were fully justified. During Monday the pair had been fluctuating, rising above this line or falling below it, but then on Tuesday it confidently rushed up, rising by 300 points and reaching a high of 1.4740 by Thursday;
  • giving a forecast for USD / JPY, both experts and technical analysis expected the movement of the pair in a sideways channel alongside the Pivot Point of 109.00. This forecast can be considered  fulfilled – the pair finished the week at the same level as it had begun from. However, its fluctuations were so marginal that it could not fall below the specified level of 109.00, which, as a result, acted as a support for it;
  • the forecast for the pair USD / CHF also suggested its movement in the sideways channel with the resistance in the zone of 0.9900 – 0.9920, which proved to be true. Only on Friday evening, after the speech of Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and finding almost no resistance, the pair managed to rise slightly above the said area and finished five days at the level of 0.9945.

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • as for the future of EUR / USD, 80% of experts and 95% of indicators insist that the pair has not reached yet the local low in the area of 1.1000. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 indicates that before going south, the price may slightly grow: the first resistance- 1.1170, the next – 1.1240. After the pair reaches its bottom at 1.1000, there may be a strong rebound, in the result of which the pair will rise above the mark of $ 1.1300;
  • with regard to the behavior of the pair GBP / USD in the medium term, the 70% of analysts and indicators on D1 talk about the continuation of the uptrend. The nearest resistance level is at around 1.4800. At the same time, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, at the beginning of the week the pair may fall to the support of 1.4500, and only then it may start moving upwards;
  • as for the future of USD / JPY, bullish sentiment is prevailing among the indicators. Opinions of experts were divided almost evenly: 35% – for the growth of the pair, 35% – for its fall. The remaining 30% predict continuation of the sideways trend, which, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, is the most likely scenario. First support – 109.40, the next – 108.50, the main resistance – in the zone of 111.00;
  • as for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, the opinions of the experts and graphical analysis radically differ. The first ones (85%) with the full support of indicators predict an effort of the pair to achieve a landmark level of 1.0000. As for the graphical analysis, it predicted that the pair will rebound downwards and return to the zone of 0.9700, followed by a short-term upward movement to the resistance of 0.9800 and even a stronger fall to the support of 0.9500. The graphical analysis gives 3- 4 weeks for the realization of this scenario.

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