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Russian gas export was under-budget in the early July

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Russian gas export was under-budget in the early July

Russian gas export was under-budget in the early July
July 14
12:30 2016

The increase of the Russian gas supply to the far abroad, which occurred in May and June, stopped with the beginning of July. This is a reaction to the increase in contract prices of “Gazprom”. The Agency of Gas Information (AGI) made calculations. The operational data of transit operators in Europe was taken as a basis. So, during the first 12 days of the month the fall can reach 6%. This dynamics is expected on the results of the month (to 13.4 billion cubic meters).

In addition to objective factors of the supply reducing, there may be subjective ones. Gas export to Turkey through Ukraine from 6 July stopped at a stable minimum of 18 million cubic meters per day. In general, for the 13 days of July the delivery of gas in this area has decreased by 20%. The sources from this industry point out that the reason of the decline is not in a demand of the Turkish market but in the gas exporter’s activities. However, the reasons of the supply fall are defined as not the commercial but the technical ones.

The local price minimum has fallen to the second quarter of 2016. And from the third quarter the price of the long-term “Gazprom” contracts begins to rise. This was preceded by an earlier recovery of oil prices. The head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller gave a comment at the annual concern meeting. According to our formula (these forecasts have an accurate trend of the dynamics), the average gas supply price for exports is higher in the third quarter than it was in the second one. “The bottom” has been passed in the second quarter. It was because of the ultra-low oil prices, when the price for Brent was at the level of $ 27 per barrel. Accordingly, the price of the fourth quarter is higher than it was in the third one. Thus, the price of the first quarter of 2017 will be higher than the price of the fourth one, respectively. Therefore, we can see the upward trend for our gas prices in the range of the next nine months”, – said Alexey Miller.

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