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Weekly Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016

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Weekly Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016

Weekly Forex Forecast for 25 – 29 July 2016
July 25
10:00 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

  • with regard to EUR / USD, the majority of experts believed that the pair would continue to further move in the sideways channel. This assumption can be considered come true if we study the monthly channel of 1.0970-1.1180, where the pair appeared after the British referendum. It should be noted that only 25% of the analysts forecast the pair decrease and its desire to retest the low of 24 June-1.0900 and to reach this low the pair had to pass only 50-60 points;
  • GBP / USD. Here the forces of bulls and bears were almost equal, and all the week the pair was fluctuating in the range of 1.3070-1.3290 with Pivot Point of 1.3200, which corresponds to the low of June 24 and connected to the lack of any significant news concerning Brexit;
  • the forecast about the behavior of USD / JPY was fulfilled by 100%. Analysts speculated that a rebound that occurred two weeks ago was just a correction. According to them, the pair had to go to the sideways motion with the resistance in the area of 106.50, which it did. The area of 107.80 was called as the next resistance. The pair tried to reach it on Thursday, but, as experts assumed, the bulls’ strength had exhausted, and the pair quickly returned to the level of 106.00;
  • USD / CHF – as expected the pair kept the bullish sentiment, but it was impossible for it to reach the level of 1.0000. Rebounding from by the support of 0.9800, the pair reached the high of 0.9905, but then it rolled back again and finished the week at the level of 0.9860.

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • with regard to EUR / USD, 70% of experts supported by 100% of indicators, tend to believe that the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0900 in the next a week or two. An alternative point of view is represented by the remaining 30% of analysts and the graphical analysis of H1, which suggest that for some time the pair will continue its sideways movement with the support of 0.9550 and the Pivot Point of 1.1000. The US Federal Reserve decision on the interest rate and relevant comments on Wednesday evening can change this trend;
  • the situation around Brexit is so ambiguous that a graphic analysis on GBP / USD does not allow giving any forecasts in all major time frames. As for the majority of experts (75%), in their opinion, the market remains bearish and the pair, having completed the correction, will tend to the support in the area of 1.2850-1.2900. 95%of indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this;
  • opinions of analysts as well as indicators and graphical analysis regarding the future of USD / JPY may be summarized to the fact that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, then, having rebounded from the resistance in the area of 107.40-107.60, it will go to the south. There, breaking through the support of 105.50, it will fall by 200 points – to the support of 103.50. But here, some adjustments can be made due to the decision of the Bank of Japan on the interest rate, which will be known on Friday morning;
  • as for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, nothing has been changed here: the bullish sentiment in an effort to reach the mark of 1.0000, Pivot Point of 0.9880, the first support is 0.9840, the second one- 0.9800, and in case of the breakdown there will be the drop to the level of 0.9700.

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