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Weekly Forex Forecast for 5 – 9 September 2016

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Weekly Forex Forecast for 5 – 9 September 2016

Weekly Forex Forecast for 5 – 9 September 2016
September 05
10:00 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

Regarding the outlook for EUR / USD, the right were those 50% of the experts, who claimed that the pair would surely test the bottom in the area of 1.1120. Also, the indicators on H4, pointing to the south (where the pair had moved earlier in the week) as well as the ones on D1, which predicted a sideways trend (on Thursday it returned to the values of Monday), turned out to be right. The end of the week brought the divergent data on the US economy. This became the certain stimulus with the result that the pair started to rush up and down, and finally completed the five-day period at the level of 1.1150 – in the same area, where in January last year there was a start for a long-term side trend, keeping EUR / USD within the range of 1.0500 – 1.1500;

With little tolerance we can consider that the outlook for GBP / USD last week has been fulfilled by 100%. As expected, at first the pair went down – to the support of 1.3000, but when 50 points were left to reach it, the pair turned around and by the end of Friday it reached the specified resistance by experts – 1.3320, approaching the upper boundary of the sideways channel, through which it has been moving for the last two months;

Giving the forecast for the USD / JPY for a week, analysts called the level of 102.20 as the main resistance. As for the growth of the pair to the area of 105.00-107.00, it was supposed that it would take at least one or two months to get there. However, it seems the pair is going to make it much faster. At least, only in the last week it increased by 250 points and breaking the resistance of 102.20, reached the high of 104.30;

The assumption that the pair USD / CHF tended to continue the sideways movement turned out to be true – it finished the week in the same area where it had started from. As a reminder, during the past few months, analysts said that it would do its best to gain a foothold above the level of 0.9800. The pair made that very attempt once again last week. However, the “shoot to the north” was not very convincing, and, having passed only 85 points, the pair returned to the landmark level of 0.9800.

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis we can say the following:

EUR / USD. Analysts’ opinions remain differ – 40% of them believe that the pair will go up –to the resistance of 1.1300. The remaining 60%, supported by indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, talk about the fall of the pair first to the support of 1.1125 and then to 1.1070. After that, according to them, for some time the pair will be moving in a horizontal channel of 1.1000 – 1.1160 to the Pivot level of 1.1070;

It is clear that assessing the prospects for the GBP / USD, most of the indicators (75%) point to the north. As for the analysts, there are two versions of events. According to the first view (held by 80% of experts and graphical analysis on D1), the pair will try to break the resistance of 1.3370 and in case of success, try to reach the highs of July 15 and 29 June – 1.3480 and 1.3530, respectively. As for the remaining 20% of analysts and graphical analysis on H4, they believe that at first the pair should go down to the Pivot level of summer sideways channel in the area of 1.3065. At the beginning of the week it will become clear, which of these scenarios will be realized. Take into account that a trend change can affect the EU economy data and, in particular, the ECB’s decision on interest and deposit rates.

Although, according to the forecasts, the mega-regulator intends to leave them unchanged;

Giving the forecast for the USD / JPY, both experts and graphical analysis believe that the pair will not be able to overcome the resistance within 104.00 – 104.50, and it will be forced to go down to the support of 102.30. This graphical analysis on D1 believes that within a month the pair can go further down – to the level of 100.90;

As for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, for several weeks the prognosis for it has remained without any major changes – a gradual consolidation in the Pivot area of 0.9800, which is clearly visible on the graphs D1 and W1. The next support levels are at 0.9760 and 0.9735. Resistance is at 0.9840, 0.9885, 0.9955. In this case, if the indicators on N4 take a neutral position, then the ones on D1 reflect the predominance of bullish trend. The publication of data on GDP of Switzerland on Tuesday and unemployment rate on Friday is one of the main upcoming events.

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