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Weekly Forex Forecast for 12 – 16 September 2016

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Weekly Forex Forecast for 12 – 16 September 2016

Weekly Forex Forecast for 12 – 16 September 2016
September 12
10:00 2016

Firstly, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

  • Regarding the outlook for EUR / USD, the right were those 40% of the experts who spoke about the growth of the pair to the high of 1.1300, which happened in reality. As expected, the ECB decisions regarding the interest rate have become key events for it as well as relevant comments of the head of the European mega-regulator. As a result, having reached the level of 1.1325 on Thursday, the pair showed impressive volatility, then turned around and went down, finishing the week around the strong level of the support / resistance of 1.1230;
  • We remind that last week while assessing the GBP / USD prospects, 80% of experts, graphic analysis on D1 and 75% of indicators pointed to the north, considering 1.3370 and 1.3480 as levels of resistance. As expected, on Monday the pair reached the first of the goals, and then bounced, but a day later it overcame this obstacle and headed further up. The pair wasn’t able to achieve the high of July 15 – 1.3480, however the high of 1.3445 can be considered as the upper limit of the summer side channel. Reaching it, the couple turned around and returned to the mark of the beginning of the week;
  • The forecast for USD / JPY assumed that the pair would not be able to overcome the resistance in the area of 104.00 – 104.50, and it would be forced to go down to the support of 102.30. Herewith, the graphical analysis specified that within a month the pair could go further down – to the level of 100.90. However, the data on the US economy allowed to make a breakthrough to the south much earlier – on Tuesday, September 6 the pair collapsed, reaching a bottom at around 101.20. However, then the bulls managed to return more than a half of the lost, and by Friday the pair returned to the area of 102.50 – 103.00;
  • If usually the pair USD / CHF shows a strong inverse correlation with the EUR / USD, then last week, in addition, it almost exactly repeated the graphic of USD / JPY, at the same time confirming the forecast of the gradual consolidation around Pivot Point of 0.9800. All year the pair insistently has been returning to this level that happened this time again – it finished the working week in the area of 0.9750 – 0.9785.

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • Talking about the future of EUR / USD, the vast majority of experts believe that the ascending channel, which was launched in July, will be continued. According to this forecast, for some time the pair can move, having the support of 1.1200 and then it will go up. The next goal is 1.1420 and in case of breakdown – 1.1500. Only one analyst had an alternative opinion. He believed that in the near future the pair would break the border of the ascending channel and would go down – to the support of 1.1120;
  • Assessing the prospects for the GBP / USD, the majority of indicators tends to sideways motion. The experts supported by the graphical analysis determine the boundaries of the channel in the range from 1.3200 to 1.3500. Herewith, the behavior of the pair may be influenced by a large volume of news from the UK on Tuesday, Wednesday and especially on Thursday. As for a long-term forecast, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 believe that the pair have to test the lows of June and July in the area of 1.2750 – 1.2850;
  • Giving a forecast for USD / JPY, both the experts (65%) and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 believe that the pair is expected to fall to the support of 101.20, and then to 99.50. 10% indicate a sideways trend, while the remaining 25% insist on the growth of the pair to the area of 103.20 – 104.00;
  • As for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, the prognosis for it remains unchanged – the smooth consolidation in the Pivot area of 0.9750- 0.9800. Support is at the level of 0.9685 and 0.9580. Resistance is at the level of 0.9840 and 0.9890.

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