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Weekly Forex Forecast for 19 – 23 September 2016

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Weekly Forex Forecast for 19 – 23 September 2016

Weekly Forex Forecast for 19 – 23 September 2016
September 19
10:00 2016

Firstly, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

  • Giving the outlook for EUR / USD, the vast majority of experts said that for some time the pair would move sideways with the support of 1.1200. That had been happening during all the week until the mid-Friday. But then, instead of going upstairs, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst warned about the possibility of such a fall, according to his opinion the pair had to break through the border of the ascending channel and go to the support of 1.1120, which it didn’t reach a little, having stood at 1.1150;
  • As expected, last week the behavior of the pair GBP / USD was determined by the large amount of news from the UK. At the same time 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair a bearish trend in an effort to stay within the boundaries of the summer side channel. That has happened – as a result of a sharp fall the pair even has broken through the central line of the channel and reached a level of 1.3000;
  • Predicting the future of USD / JPY, the experts have divided into three camps. As a result, the pair was able to support the opinion of every camp. 65% of analysts with the graphical analysis expected the fall of the pair to the support of 101.20, – on Tuesday it went up to a mark of 101.40. 25% talked about the growth of the pair to the zone of 103.20-104.00 – on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. Finally, the remaining 10% of the experts believed that the pair expected a sideways trend- as a result the pair finished five days almost at the same place where it began – in the area of 102.25-102.60;
  • Pair USD / CHF also presented surprises. As it was expected by the analysts, it didn’t move away from the Pivot Point of 0.9800, having ended the week exactly at this point.

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Summarizing the opinion of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • Speaking about the future of EUR / USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 consider that the breakdown may be false, and the ascending channel, which was launched in July, will be continued. However, such a scenario is not according to most analysts, who expect the further falling of the pair at first to around 1.1100, and then by 100 points lower. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair decrease is equal to 70% and they call the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 as a target;
  • Assessing the prospects for the GBP / USD, most of the indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist on the continuation of the pair falling to the lower limit of three-month sideways channel – 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions have divided into three almost equal parts- 35% -for the fall, 30% -for the growth and 35% -for the sideways trend. The only general thing in their predictions is that the pair will continue to stay in the corridor in the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;
  • There is no unity among the experts relatively the forecast for USD / JPY. We can say with confidence that Wednesday will become the defining trend for the week, when we’ll see the decision of the Central Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve regarding the interest rates, and the corresponding comments on the monetary policy in these countries. As for the graphical analysis, on H4 it says that for some time the pair will stay within the boundaries of 101.70 – 103.25. After that, according to testimony on D1, the pair will drop to the support of 100.50, having repulsed from which it will abruptly go up – to the resistance of 104.30 and in case of the breakdown the pair will go even higher – up to the high of 111.45;
  • The forecast for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF – once more it has left without changes – motion along the Pivot area of 0.9750 – 0.9800. There is a support at 0.9685 and 0.9640, resistance – 0.9885. At the same time, giving the medium-term forecast, about 60% of the experts say about bull trends and the pair aspiration to the high of 1.0100.

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