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Weekly Forex forecast for 26 – 30 September 2016

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Weekly Forex forecast for 26 – 30 September 2016

Weekly Forex forecast for 26 – 30 September 2016
September 26
10:00 2016

At first, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

  • Last week the main intrigue for the pair of EUR / USD was the question if the rising channel, which started in July, would continue. However, the behavior of the pair did not give a clear answer to this question. Indeed, after the breakdown, the pair fell to the support in the area of 1.1100-1.1120, as expected. But then being able to repulse, it returned to the lower limit of the rising channel, turning it from a support into the resistance, and continued to grow;
  • It should be recalled that assessing the possible behavior of the GBP / USD, the experts divided into three almost equal groups: 35% of them voted for the pair fall, 30% – for its growth, and 35% – for a sideways trend. As a result, the last proved to be the right – using the center line of the summer sideways channel 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair was moving to the east during all the week. Herewith, the bears did not get tired to test the strength of the level of 1.2950, but the bulls managed to successfully repel these attacks, and the pair was able to finish the five-day period at around 1.2960;
  • With regard to USD / JPY, the defining moments for the week trend were not only decisions of the Central Bank of Japan and the US Federal Reserve on interest rates (which, as expected, remained unchanged), but, largely, the comments on the monetary policy in these countries. As a result, after spending the first two days of the week in the sideways corridor, on Wednesday, at first, the pair made a sharp jump up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as predicted by the graphical analysis, it fell down. Having broken the support of 100.50, the pair fell by 40 points – to the level of 100.10, then, slightly calming down, it returned to the specified area – channel 100.50-101.25;
  • Wednesday became defining for the pair USD / CHF. And if before the pair was going, not moving away from the Pivot Point 0.9800, then mirror-copying the behavior of the EUR / USD, it sharply went down. The technical analysis drew two levels of the support – 0.9685 and 0.9640; the pair preferred the average value and as the week low it chose the level of 0.9660, after which, having repulsed, it returned to the area of 0.9685-0.9740.

The forecast for the upcoming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading world banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

  • EUR / USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point at the north. As for the analysts, 60% voted for the growth of the pair and 40% – for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement was found to be 0. In case of the victory of the “party of the growth”, the pair must return to the limits of medium-term rising channel and gain a foothold over its bottom level, along which it is moving now. In this scenario, the minimum task is getting into the 1.1260-1.1280 area; the aim for the next few weeks is 1.1410. As for the fall supporters, their goal is the level of 1.1120, the next support is 1.1045. It should be noted that, unlike the weekly forecast, the advantage is given to the bears by nearly 75% of the experts in the medium term;
  • The forecast for the GBP / USD has remained largely unchanged. Most analysts with the full support of indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 insist on the continuation of the pair fall to the lower limit of three-month sideways channel – 1.2850 after which there will be a trend reversal and the return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060.
  • With regard to USD / JPY, here the majority of experts – 70%, supported by indicators and graphical analysis on D1, insist on the continuation of the downtrend. It should be noted that now the pair is at a level of the very strong support – 101.00, and it is possible that it will require a lot of effort to overcome it. If it is successful, the target for the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, within a month the pair may fall even lower – to the support of 96.50, and then it will return to the level of 101.00;
  • Speaking about the near future of the USD / CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should test again the low at the level of 0.9660 and it is possible that it will reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. More than 70% of analysts are sure that the pair will come back to Pivot Point 0.9800.

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