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Technical Analysis for 03/11/2016

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Technical Analysis for 03/11/2016

Technical Analysis for 03/11/2016
November 03
09:00 2016



EURUSD pair continued to grow on Wednesday, having risen by 38 points to 1.1094 during the day. In addition, the euro has updated the maximum from October 12 to 1.1122. At the beginning of the European session, the single currency was supported by the published data on Germany. The unemployment rate fell to 6% in October against the previous forecast of 6.1%. The number of the unemployed decreased by 13 thousand, exceeding the forecast of the reduction by 1000; however, index of business activity in the manufacturing sector from Markit fell to 55 against the forecast of 55.1. At the same time, the same index, but for the eurozone rose to 53.5, exceeding the forecast by 0.2.

The pair established the high of the day during the Fed’s meeting, when the market expectedly heard the continuation of the current rate at the level of 0.5% and a possible increase in December. Janet Yellen said that the economy was improving, while the inflation was gradually accelerating to the target level of 2%. At the same time, four hours earlier, ADP data on employment levels in the private sector had been released, reflecting the increase in the number of employees in the USA by 147 million, not reaching the forecast number of 165,000. Tomorrow we’ll get the data on the number of jobs in October from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; the forecast number is 175 thousand. Today, we are waiting for the statistics on the unemployment benefits at 15:30 (Moscow time) as well as indexes on business activity in the US services sector from Markit and ISM at 16:45 and 17:00 respectively.

In this way:

The most likely scenario: the growth of EURUSD pair to the level of 1.1170

The least likely scenario: the reduction of the pair to the level of 1.1040



There were no significant changes in the pair GBPUSD during the first session in November, apart from brief overcoming the resistance of 1.2250. Most of the trade the pair was in the range of 1,2205-1,2260 and finished the day with the rise by 4 points to 1.2241. Compared to yesterday the number of sellers has increased by 2.04% to 46.34%, while there are 53.66% of buyers of the total number of traders.

MACD above zero indicates a possible resumption of the price growth, so let’s focus on the consolidation above the resistance of1.2250. Stochastic at the level of 89% indicates the likelihood of a reversal of the exchange rate GBPUSD in the near future. Our sale signal on the rebound from the resistance from the level of 1.2225 triggered yesterday. This signal is currently showing a loss of 18 points.



During the last auction the dollar fell against the yen, continuing a downward trend after an unsuccessful attempt to break through the resistance of 105.50 on 28 October. Yesterday’s fall ended at the level of 103.78, which is below a former support of 104.20. However, most traders continue to adhere to the bullish sentiment regarding the rate of USDJPY (64,36% are buying, 35.64% are selling).

The indicator MACD is in contact with SMA-line in the negative area, not giving clear signals for the purchase, and Stochastic came back above 20% to 32%, assuming a reversal of the price upwards. Recently the pair has suspended the downward corrective movement at the level of 103.61, rebounding to 103.77. We look forward to the return above 104.20 for the consideration of the possibility to open a long position.

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1 Comment

  1. Gene Hillie
    Gene Hillie September 19, 07:34

    Amazing post. Do you have any other ones you can put? I highlyrate it. 🙂

    Reply to this comment

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