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Technical Analysis for 04/11/2016

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Technical Analysis for 04/11/2016

Technical Analysis for 04/11/2016
November 04
09:00 2016



During the bidding process on Thursday, the pair EURUSD distinguished with bilateral dynamics, ending the session with a slight increase of 10 points. The previous day was rather saturated in terms of the fundamental events, but the market experienced the low business activity because of the expectations of traders regarding the report on the US NFP that will be published today at 15:30 Moscow time.

According to the forecasts, the number of new jobs increased to 175 thousand in October. According to yesterday’s data: the unemployment rate in the eurozone remained at the same level and coincided with the forecast of 10%, in Italy the unemployment rose to 11.7% instead of the forecast of 11.4%. In the US the number of initial claims for benefits rose to 265 thousand against the forecast of 258,000, while the number of secondary ones decreased to 2.026 million versus – 2,044 million. Factory orders rose to 0.3% in September (it’s better than the forecast by 0.1%). ISM index of business activity in the services sector fell to 54.8 (the forecast – 56).

The US statistics did not give the sufficient support for the US currency; today’s reports will influence not only on the dollar in the coming weeks, but also on the probability of the Fed hike in December.

In this way:

The most likely scenario: the reduction of the pair EURUSD to the level of 1.10 The least likely scenario: the pair growth to the level of 1.1180.



The British pound, which 1.5 weeks ago renewed multi-year lows against the dollar to 1.2081, significantly rose in price during the last trade by 161 point to 1.2462. The main reason for this increase was the British government’s defeat in the court regarding the exit procedure from the EU, which in its turn disappointed the bears. The bears rapidly began to eliminate shorts, thus, discarding the pair to new highs of 1.2493 from 10 October. Later, however, the growth slowed as it became known about the appointment of an appeal for 5-8 December. Judging by Cayman, the aspect ratio has changed in favor of the bulls (49.89% are buying, 50.11% are selling). The bars of the MACD indicator are above zero and they are rising. SMA-line is above the bars, which indicates the possible continuation of the growth of the pair GBPUSD.



The last trade the pair USDJPY spent in the range of 89 points, having gone down by 38 points as the result of the day. The support of 103.10 was broken through, but there was not enough bearish momentum in order to develop a downward correction. In connection with this today we are witnessing the consolidation of the pair near 103.10. Most traders continue to expect a reversal in the price (66.28% are buying, 33.72% are selling). However, it will be possible to wait for any bullish recovery only after the consolidation above the resistance of 104.20. Stochastic at the level of 61.81% does not give a clear signal for the purchase, but the upwards movement of MACD bars to zero and the position of SMA-line indicate a possible upward reversal of the pair.

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