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Technical Analysis for 08/11/2016

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Technical Analysis for 08/11/2016

Technical Analysis for 08/11/2016
November 08
09:00 2016



The dollar has strengthened significantly after the opening of markets on Monday. This happened due to the news that the FBI had refused to initiate criminal proceedings after investigating the leak of emails from the personal email of the US presidential candidate Hillary Clinton. It is believed that the victory of the candidate most likely to maintain the current policy of raising interest rates, which in turn, will support the US dollar. During the day, the US currency has strengthened the position with the opening at the level of 1.1058, and finished trading at around 1.1039. The dynamics of consumer lending volumes, which exceeded forecasts, has provided the additional support. On Tuesday we are waiting for the statistics from Germany, including import and export. The British report on the inflation and the assessment of GDP growth will have an indirect impact on the pair.

Stochastic is near the limit of the oversold area. The trend rate is below the average within the day and Ichimoku indicates a downtrend. Chikou line is below the price chart, remaining on the side of the bears.

In this way:

The most likely scenario: the growth of the asset to the mark of 1.1111 The least likely scenario: the reduction of EURUSD pair to the level of 1.0977.



During the bidding process of the trading session on Monday the US currency rebounded by more than 100 points against the yen, closing the day at 104.44. The information that FBI decided not to initiate proceedings against Hillary Clinton, concerning the leak of the confidential information of the former Secretary of State, has supported the dollar and stimulated the growth of yields of the US Treasuries. Recent results of the opinion polls indicate that the distance by the number of votes between Clinton and Trump has increased again. The market participants have little doubt that Clinton will occupy the Oval Office that allows counting on preserving the previous vector of the foreign and domestic policy.

Hillary’s victory is associated with the idea of the feasibility of the further increase of the US interest rates. In addition, the predictability of her political ideology reduces the attractiveness of defensive assets, which price positions strengthen in times of uncertainty. The outcome of the presidential race in the United States that promises to be momentous for the future prospects for the dollar will become the main theme of the day. After the American voters choose and we know the name of the new leader of the USA, traders will again focus their attention on the timing of monetary policy tightening. Taking into account the latest data on the state of the US labor market, December, 2016 is still the most suitable period for the normalization of the monetary policy. Clinton’s victory will rather quickly return the favor of the former buyers, who want the pair USDJPY to grow above 106.00 in a very short period of time.

Recommendation USDJPY BuyStop 104,60 TP 108,00 SL 103,00.


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