Weekly Forex Forecast for 13 – 17 June 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- giving a forecast for EUR / USD for the next month, the majority of experts (80%) insisted that the pair would fall at least to the level of 1.1100. As a result, after the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi, the pair really started to move south and finished the week in the middle between the support levels of 1.1283 and 1.1200, indicated on the basis of the graphical analysis data;
- in anticipation of Brexit the pair GBP / USD continues to grow day by day. We remind that the opinions of analysts split almost equally last week – 45% were in favor of the pair, 45% – for its fall and 10% – for the sideways trend and fluctuations around the Pivot Point of 1.4500. As a result, the pair first went up to the specified line, then it got to the mark of 1.4660; in total it moved upwards by 300 points in a day and a half, then turned around and went back to the Pivot Point. Then it collapsed, breaking through all the expected levels of support, and eventually fell by 500 points;
- but with regard to the forecast for USD / JPY, it can be considered fully come true. All 100% of the experts unanimously ruled out the fall of the pair, while half of them voted for its rise, half – for its horizontal movement. As a result, being unable to break through the support level of 106.30, the pair rose by 150 points, and then returned to the mark of the beginning of the week, identifying the level of 107.00 as the Pivot Point.
- as to the behavior of USD / CHF, once again the graphical analysis proved to be right, over a period of several weeks it had been strongly warning about the possible fall of the pair to the support of 0.9500. As a result, the pair almost reached the intended target, dropping to the level of 0.9577, and then it rebounded and completed the week in the zone of 0.9640.
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- the medium-term outlook for the EUR / USD remains the same – a decrease to a level of 1.1000 during the month. 70% of the experts agree with this scenario. As for its behavior in the coming week, both the experts and graphical analysis on H4 and indicators on D1 forecast the sideways movement with a predominance of the bearish trends and the support in the area of 1.1210. An alternative view is given by the graphic analysis on D1. And, although, it also predicts the horizontal trend, according to its opinion, the pair must first climb to a high of 1.4440, and only then it should drop to the support of 1.1210 and then even lower – to the level of 1.1135;
- with regard to GBP / USD, the graphical analysis seems to be aware of the upcoming referendum on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. At least, it refuses to make any predictions on H1, H4 and D1. But the views of indicators and experts diverge radically: if 100% of the first point down, then 90% of the others show the desire of the pair to go back to the Pivot Point of 1.4500. The rise to the resistance of 1.4400 is indicated as he minimum target;
- surprisingly, analyst’s views on the future of USD / JPY have coincided with the indicators’ readings and the graphical analysis. According to their joint decision, the pair will continue to move along the Pivot Point of 107.00. The first support will be at 106.50, the second – 105.50, the resistance is in areas of 107.50, 107.90 and 108.70;
- as for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF – the experts call the level of 0.9550 as the local bottom for the pair, and the graphical analysis reckons that this bottom would be at the level of 0.9600. The attempts of the bulls to return the pair to the area of 0.9700 – 0.9750 are pointed out. As for the monthly forecast, here the opinions vary: analysts continue to insist on the pursuit of the pair to the level of 1.0000, but the graphical analysis considers that the pair will rebound from the resistance of 0.9750 and then it will go down to the lows of the beginning of May in the area of 0.9445.