Weekly Forex Forecast for 20 – 24 June 2016
Firstly, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- giving a forecast for the pair EUR / USD both experts and technical analysis voted for the sideways trend with a bearish sentiment, which was fulfilled with an accuracy of 100%, – the difference between the levels of the beginning and the end of the week was only about 20 points, therewith the pair tended to the south. As for the support zones, here the predictions were fairly accurate. The graphical analysis on H4 indicated the support of 1.1210, and the pair, having reached that level on Tuesday, bounced off it and moved upwards on Wednesday. It was possible to break through the support only on Thursday and, as predicted by graphical analysis on D1, the pair quickly reached the bottom in the zone of 1.1135, and then it returned to the values of the beginning of the week;
- we failed to find any compromise between the experts and technical analysis for the pair GBP / USD. As a result, throughout the week the pair was drawing a chart, which was very similar to the chart of EUR / USD. The increased volatility of the pair, as the result of which the range of the pair’s weekly fluctuations exceeded 350 points, was the only prediction that was given and completely justified;
- as to the forecast for USD / JPY, surprisingly, the opinion of analysts coincided with the indicators and the graphical analysis. According to their solidarity, the pair had to continue to move along the Pivot Point of 107.00. However, on Thursday, due to the decisions of the Bank of Japan regarding the interest rate, the pair easily broke through the support in the area of 105.50 and went down sharply, reaching the two-year- old levels;
- as to the behavior of USD / CHF, both the experts and graphical analysis agreed in opinion that the pair had reached a local bottom in the area of 0.9550 – 0.9600. The pair really could not fall below these marks and finished the five-day period at the level of 0.9590. As for the pair’s desire to return to the zone of 0.9700 – 0.9750, the pair took four such attempts during the week, however, it failed to rise above the mark of 0.9686.
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- giving the forecast for EUR / USD, 60% of the experts with the support of 80% of indicators on H4 suggest the growth of the pair to the area of 1.1340 – 1.1400. As for the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 and indicators on the daily interval, they believe that within the next couple of days the pair will not rise above the level of 1.1300 and will move in a sideways channel of 1.1200 – 1.1300. The next support – 1.1150;
- with regard to GBP / USD, it’s almost impossible to give a holistic forecast ahead of Brexit. As a reminder, a plebiscite among the inhabitants of Albion will take place next Thursday, on 23 June, and its results should be made public the following day, on Friday, 24 June. According to some analysts, if the British vote for the exit from the EU, their national currency may collapse by more than 4000 points, to the level of 1.1000. It is fair to say that it should be noted that most of the experts (65%) remain optimistic, bullish sentiment, though no one indicates any specific growth points. As for the forecast from Monday to Wednesday, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, the pair has a lot of chances to fall to the area of 1.4100;
- the analysts and graphical analysis agree that local bottom for the USD / JPY is at the level of 103.40. According to them, for some time the pair will be moving in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00, and then it will get over the level and move upwards to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50;
- as for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, the forecast remains the same. The experts and the graphical analysis identify the level of 0.9550 as the pair’s local bottom with the resistance at 0.9700, the general sentiment is bearish. However, once again we want to remind that the results of Brexit can sufficiently influence not only GBP/USD, but also all other major currency pairs.