Weekly Forex Forecast for 27 June -1 July 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- all the forecasts for the previous week were given with the proviso that they would be in power only before the beginning of the referendum in the UK. And taking this proviso into account, the outlook for the pair EUR / USD can be considered 100% fulfilled. Thus, the majority of both experts and indicators were talking about the growth of the pair to the area of 1.1340-1.140. The level of 1.1200 was named as the main support. As a result, despite the different expectations regarding the outcome of the British referendum, the pair managed to keep in the range of 1.1235-1.1420. As for Friday, June 24 was the first day when the pair fell down by 500 points, then it won back a half – to the level of 1.1190 and finished the week at the level of the end of May – at the zone of 1.1100;
- last week it was impossible to give any holistic outlook for the pair GBP / USD. However, according to the most pessimistic forecasts, in case if the citizens of the United Kingdom voted for withdrawal from the EU, the pair could fall to the level of 1.1000. However, this did not happen, even though the downswing was very impressive – 1,790 points just in a few hours. As for the final results of the week, the pair stopped at around 1.3675 – the greatest fall from the beginning of 2009;
- the forecast for USD / JPY reckoned that at first the pair will move in a sideways channel of 103.40 – 105.00 and then it will go upwards – to the zone of 106.00 – 107.50. That exactly what happened – during the first half of the week the pair was in the range of 103.55-105.00. On Thursday it rose to the mark of 105.00-106.80, and on Friday, having reacted to the results of Brexit, it stood at around 102.10 (the Pivot Point of the first half of 2014).
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- giving the outlook for EUR / USD, 80% of experts with the support of the overwhelming majority of indicators on H4 and D1 insist that the pair will once again test the low of the last week, trying to fall into the zone of 1.0800-1.0900. As for the remaining 20% of analysts, they believe that the pair will follow the example of the pair USD / CHF, which gradually returned to the baseline values after the “Black Thursday” on 15 January 2015. On this basis, they expect the growth of EUR / USD to the level of 1.1350;
- as for the GBP / USD, it is difficult to predict the future of this pair and in the near future it is likely to emotionally react to any statements of the newsmakers regarding the future of Britain and Europe. That is why analysts’ opinions were split almost equally: 40% – for the growth of the pair, 30% – for the fall and 30% – for a sideways trend. If we talk about the technical analysis, 90% of the indicators on H4 and 100% on D1 are looking down. However, we recommend you not to be guided by their readings in the current situation;
- regarding the future of USD / JPY 60% of analysts with the support of 100% of indicators, voted for the fall of the pair at least to the landmark level of 100.00 and possibly even lower – to the bottom in the area of 097.00-098.00. An alternative view is expressed by the remaining 40% of the experts and graphical analysis on H4, which predict the movement of the pair in the range of 101.00-104.00.