Weekly Forex Forecast for 15 – 19 August 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- The forecast for EUR / USD assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair could grow to the level of 1.1130, and in case of its breakdown – to 1.1170. The high of 1.1220 was indicated as the third resistance. This plan was fully fulfilled by the pair: on Tuesday it reached a level of 1.1130, on Wednesday it broke through it and reached the level of 1.1170, turning it into the Pivot Point, and on Friday the pair took the high of 1.1220 on the news from the USA. After this uprise the pair quickly came back, staying within the three-month descending channel.
- We remind that speaking about the pair GBP / USD, 100% of the experts expressed their opinion that during August the pair had to retest the bottom in the area of 1.2700-1.2800. Apparently, after hearing this forecast, the pair aggressively was trying to go down all the week, but so far it had managed only to fall to the level of 1.2900;
- About the behavior of USD / JPY last week, it was impossible to form any consensus: experts were looking down – to the area of 98.90-100.00; the technical analysis also said that before the fall the pair would first try to reach the upper limit of the long-term downtrend channel in the area of 103.50- 104.00. As a result, moving along the sideways channel, the pair did not reach any of those marks, keeping the range of 100.96-102.65;
- USD / CHF – half of the experts assumed that the pair would try to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The remaining 50% of analysts argued that it could do this, supposing its movement in the range of 0.9735-0.9900. Looking at the weekly chart, we can conclude that both turned to be right: the first two days the pair tried hard to hold above 0.9800, afterwards the bulls gave up, and the pair plunged sharply, finishing the week in the area of 0.9750.
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- Giving the forecast for EUR / USD, the majority of experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, indicate the area of 1.1100 as the nearest support. With regard to the resistance, the area of 1.1230 is expected to act as the resistance if it is broken through the pair may attempt to go up by 100 points – to the level of 1.1330. 80% of indicators on D1 and H4 agree with this scenario. As for the longer term, almost 100% of the experts believe that the three-month downward trend will continue, and the pair will try to reach the level of 1.0800 or even 1.0600;
- It is clear that speaking about the future of the pair GBP / USD, 100% of indicators look to the south. As for the experts and graphical analysis, they believe that the pair will not be able to overcome the support of 1.2810-1.2850 in the near future, and rebounding from it, the pair will go up to the area of 1.3200-1.3250. It should be clarified that about 70% of the experts believe that in the medium term under the bearish pressure the pair will move to the south again, where it will try to test the support of 1.2700, and in case of the breakdown it will go below – to the level of 1.2500;
- Speaking about the future of USD / JPY, the majority of experts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agreed that for some time the pair would continue to move in a sideways channel of 100.70-102.50, then it would rise to the area of 103.00 – 104.00. And only 20% of analysts believe that the pair still be able to descend to the level of 100.00;
- As for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, the forecasts have been indicating to the magic level of 0.9800 for several months in a row. So, this week experts believe that the pair will first strive to reach this high, and then it will fix above it – in the area of 0.9800-0.9900. Agreeing with such a scenario, the graphical analysis clarifies that at first the pair will take several attempts to overcome the resistance of 0.9765, and only then, rebounding from the support of 0.9700-0.9730, it will take a breakthrough to the north.