Weekly Forex Forecast for 22 – 26 August 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- The forecast for EUR / USD suggested that having rebounded from the support of 1.1100, the pair would go up to the resistance of 1.1230 and in case of its breakdown, it would rise by another 100 points – to the level of 1.1330.Considering the backlash, which is typical for the levels of support / resistance on D1, the forecast can be considered come true: rebounding from the level of 1.1153, on Tuesday the pair broke the first resistance and fixed above it. By Thursday it had come to the second resistance, by inertia it slipped past further 35 points, and then the pair returned to the area that had been specified by the experts, ending the week at 1.1325;
- The forecast for GBP / USD can also be considered fulfilled by almost 100%. We remind that both experts and graphical analysis argued that in the nearest future the pair would be able to overcome the support of 1.2810-1.2850 and when bouncing off it, the pair would go up – to the area of 1.3200-1.3250, which really happened: the low of the last week – 1.2865, high – 1.3185;
- there were disputes for several weeks whether the pair USD / JPY would manage to reach the area of 98.90-100.00. First, such a scenario was according to most analysts, and then the number of them decreased progressively. And only when there were only 20%of them left, the pair barely broke the support of 100.86, fell one level down, and finally reached the landmark line of 100.00, turning it later into the pivot point;
- USD / CHF – the graphical analysis turned out to be the closest to the truth, which suggested that before reaching the level of 0.9800, the pair would make several attempts to overcome the resistance of 0.9765, and then it would roll back to the support of 0.9700-0.9730. But even this forecast can be considered only partially come true. Indeed, on Monday for a few hours the pair had been making attempts to break through the area of 0.9765. Indeed, it did not succeed, and went down.But, with this, the bears were so strong that they easily overcame the timid resistance of the rival, and, instead of the expected 50 points, it fell by about 200.
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- Giving the forecast for EUR / USD, about 60% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that with the support of 1.1300, the pair will try to reach the resistance of 1.1425 and then it will retrace down to the support in the area of 1.1200-1.1230. As an alternative points of view there are two options: the first one is a sideways movement with the pivot point of 1.1300, and the second one is a downward trend since the beginning of the week with the same purpose – 1.1200;
- Judging by the opinion of most experts as well as graphical analysis and indicators on H4 and D1, the main forecast for the GBP / USD in the near future is continuation of the sideways trend, which was formed after the referendum on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. Now the pair is close to the center line of the horizontal channel – 1.3080, and according to the readings of the graphical analysis, which began last week, its movement to the north will continue. With smooth consolidation, the immediate target for the pair is the resistance of 1.3280 and in case of its break – 1.3350. The third resistance is 1.3500. An alternative view suggests a retreat of the pair from the center line to the lower boundary of the specified channel – 1.2850;
- Predicting the future of USD / JPY, the readings of many indicators differ: 65% on H1 vote for BUY, 70% on H4 – for SELL and 30%- for BUY, and 100% on D1 vote for SELL. Also, there is no consensus among experts as 50% of them are for the pair growth, 30% – for its fall and 20% – for its sideways movement along the line of 100.00. The level of 099.00 is called as the main support. The only one that offers more or less agreed consensus forecast is the graphical analysis on H4 and D1 – in both cases we are talking about the growth of the pair to the resistance of 102.00. And only after these goals are met, it will be able to go down by 300 points – to the level of 099.00;
- As for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, then 80% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on H4, believe that last week it reached its local bottom at 0.9535; after which for a while the pair will be moving in the sideways channel of 0.9535-0.9640 with the Pivot Point of 0.9590. Then the pair is expected to move in the upward trend, the first resistance – 0.9710 and then- 0.9800. The target for autumn remains the same – 1.0000.