Weekly Forex Forecast for August 29 – September 2, 2016
First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which for all four pairs can be considered if not 100% , but at least 90% fulfilled:
- All three variants of the forecast for the pair EUR / USD, which the experts gave last week, considered the level of 1.200 as the ultimate goal, which was reached on Friday evening with the “support” of the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen that gave investors the hope for increasing the Fed rate before the end of 2016;
- the forecast GBP / USD can also be considered as 100% fulfilled. As a reminder, the experts as well as technical analysis predicted the continuation of the sideways trend, formed after the referendum on the withdrawal of Great Britain from the EU. Considering smooth consolidation, resistance of 1.3280, which the pair reached last Wednesday, was named as the immediate target. After the reached level the pair retreated to the center of the channel, finishing the week at 1.3130;
- Predicting the future of USD / JPY, experts and indicators could not reach a consensus. The only one that offered more or less agreed forecast, was the graphic analysis on H4 and D1, insisting on the growth of the pair to the resistance of 102.00, which happened on Friday when the pair reached the high of 101.94;
- As a reminder, the outlook for USD / CHF said that for a while the pair would be moving sideways 0.9535-0.9640 with Pivot Point of 0.9590, after which it was expected the uptrend with the target of 0.9710 and then- 0.9800. Expect that the Pivot level became the channel’s lower boundary, this prediction turned out to be absolutely true. The first half of the week the pair was moving to the east, then it went to the north, and by the end of five days it had almost reached the ultimate goal, having risen to the level of 0.9792.
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world’s leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- EUR / USD. After the speech of Janet Yellen “certain uncertainty” crossed the minds of both analysts and indicators’ readings. In other words, one half of the experts say about the return of the pair to the resistance of 1.1365, the second one insists on the fact that it will try to test the bottom in the area of 1.1200 once more. With regard to the indicators on H4, they point to the south, and D1 indicate the sideways trend.It seems that in this situation the economic data from the euro area, the publication of which is expected on Wednesday, will have the major impact on the movement of the pair, and, in particular, the release of the data on NFP – an important indicator of the state of the US economy, which will be published on Friday, 2 September. The forecast for NFP reminds the disappointing forecast a month ago and speaks about the reduction of this figure from 255K to 164K-188K;
- we can see a variety of opinions similar to EUR/USD when we try to give a forecast for GBP/USD. However, the variety of opinions and statements can still be reduced to a common denominator, according to which we should expect the continuation of the summer sideways trend. The level of 1.3000 is called as the main support level, and 1.3320 – as the main resistance.Next resistance is at the level of 1.3385. Both graphical analysis on H4 and D1 warn that at first the pair may fall to the support area and only rebounding from it, the pair will go higher. The ultimate goal here is the third resistance at 1.3560. If we talk about the forecast of the autumn as a whole, 80% of the experts take the side of the bears and talk about a possible decline in the pair to the area of 1.2500-1.2800;
- Giving a forecast for USD / JPY, we can talk about the consolidation of the pair near the pivot level of 100.80. Resistance is at the area of 102.20, the support – 099.90. With this, the graphical analysis on D1 indicates a desire of the pair to the area of 0.9840-0.9880, but in order to break through the support of 099.90 it can spend from one to two weeks. If we talk about the forecast for the coming months, about 70% of the experts, supported by graphical analysis, talk about the growth of the pair to the area of 105.00-107.00;
- As for the last pair of our review – USD / CHF, then 100% of analysts supported by graphical analysis on H4 believe that it expects the sideways movement along the Pivot Point of 0.9680 with the predominance of bearish trends. The resistance is at 0.9800, the support – at 0.9640.