Ministry of Economic Development: Russia’s economy will be stagnating during three years
The Russian economy has become a happy owner of three forecasts from the Ministry of Economic Development for the term of 2017- 2019. Each of these forecasts suggests stagnation in the future. The office has held a presentation of the three variants of the forecast: “base”, “base +” and “target”. It was held for the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. Only the “target” option predicts high rates of the GDP growth, equal to 4.5% in 2019. The two other projections show the growth only by 0.6-2.4%. The documents stated that the forecast for 2016 did not differ from the current estimate of the Ministry of Economic Development – minus 0.6% of the GDP.
The Russian budget shows a deficit in the years of 2016-2019 for all three projections. Apparently, in the future it will be necessary to use reserve funds, make loans within the country and abroad as well as privatize. In addition, the forecast includes expectations regarding the capital outflow from the country. The capital outflow of $ 20 billion is the main expectation of 2017. This level should fall to $ 18 billion in 2018 and $ 16 billion in 2019. The salaries of state employees are not expected to increase at this time; but there are plans in order to maintain the existing rates of teachers, doctors and researchers guaranteed by the presidential decrees in May 2012.