Weekly Forex Forecast for 24 – 28 October 2016
Firstly, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:
- Speaking about the future of EUR / USD, the majority of experts (60%) with 100% support of the indicators on H4 and D1 expected to pair decline to the lows of February-March in the region of 1.0800-1.0825. The only question was how much time the process would take. The level of 1.0900 was mentioned as the short-term support. This support was really short, and the pair overcame it on Friday without too much difficulty, then it dropped to the level of 1.0860. This was followed by a slight rebound, and the pair ended the week at around 1.0885;
- We remind that giving the forecast for GBP / USD, 70% of analysts, supported by the graphical analysis on H4, confidently said that in the nearest time the pair would not drop below the level of 1.2100 and would move in a sideways channel 1.2100-1.2330. This forecast proved to be 100% correct. The minimum of the week was recorded at 1.2135 on Monday. Several attempts to break the resistance of 1.2330, which the pair took on Tuesday and Wednesday, were unsuccessful, and it finished five days almost in the middle of the specified side channel – at the level of 1.2230;
- USD / JPY. The most accurate forecast was given by the graphical analysis, which predicted the fall of the pair and its motion to the sideways trend within the range of 102.80-104.30. The pair really started to decline since the first moment of the opening of the week session and all five days it kept within a side channel in the range of 103.16-104.35;
- USD / CHF. The pair continues to move towards its main goal – the high of 1.0100. At the same time, last week some analysts predicted the temporary rollback for the pair. But 40% of them insisted that before going down, it should surely reach the mark of 0.9950. And the pair has not only fulfilled but it overfulfilled this task a little bit, moving up to the level of 0.9962 within a week.
The forecast for the upcoming week:
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
- Speaking about the future of EUR / USD, 70% of the experts believe that the pair will continue to decline at least to the level of 1.0800. 100% indicators on H4 and D1 agree with this scenario. The fall can be even stronger if forecasts on the state of the US economy prove to be true. Some figures for September will be announced on Thursday, 27 October, while the annual GDP data – on Friday, 28 October. Analysts expect that they will be quite positive for the dollar, which can further drop the pair. We remind that last year the pair repeatedly dropped below $1.0500. Nearly 30% of experts and the graphical analysis on H4, which at first draws the sideways movement of the pair in the channel of 1.0855-1.0915 and then the rise to the level of 1.0960, have an alternative point of view. The next resistance is 1.1100;
- GBP / USD. There are about 80% of analysts that with the support of 70% of the indicators believe that in the nearest time the pair will start to decline at first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. As for the graphical analysis, according to its indications, at the beginning of the week the pair will be held in the corridor of 1.2135-1.2300 for some time, and then its volatility will rise to 1.2000-1.2430. The formation of the trends can be affected by the speeches of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney and Mario Draghi, Governor of the ECB on Tuesday, and, of course, by the above mentioned data on the US economy. It should be noted that in the longer term, the analysts’ opinion has been changed, and more than 55% of them expect the pair to rise to the area of 1.2800-1.3000 by New Year;
- USD / JPY. For the fourth week in a row the opinions of experts about the future of this pair have divided almost equally: 40% -for the growth of the pair, 40% – for its fall and 20% – for a sideways trend with Pivot Point of 103.45. If we add the readings of 70% of indicators and the graphical analysis to this discordance, in the near future we can expect the growth of the pair to the level of 105.00 and then its decline to the support in the area of 103.20. The next support is 102.80. Coming back to the analysts’ opinion, it can be noted that in the medium term 65% of them believe that the pair will surely reach the high of 105.00;
- With regard to the forecast for USD / CHF, everything has been unchanged: about 60% of analysts, 90% of the indicators and the graphical analysis on H4 vote for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – now up to a high of 1.0000, and then its rollback into the area of 0.9700- 0.9800. The remaining 40% of the experts believe that the pair will reverse to the south, failing to reach this benchmark level. The nearest support levels are 0.9855 and 0.9820, then- 0.9765 and 0.9695.