Weekly Forex Forecast for 31 October – 4 November 2016
Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from the world leading banks and brokerage firms as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of methods of the technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:
Despite the growth of the EUR / USD last week, 70% of the experts continue to insist that the pair has to reduce at least to the level of 1.0800. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, then they took a neutral position. But the graphic analysis on H4 states that, having reduced to the level of 1.0900, the pair once again will unfold to the north and go to the resistance of 1.1100. Approximately 30% of analysts agree with this. It should be taken into consideration that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the US Federal Reserve decision on interest rates on Wednesday, 2 November and the publication of the data on the change in the level of employment in the USA (NFP) on Friday, 4 th November. Also, it is necessary to take into account the upcoming presidential elections in the United States on November, 8. All these events can lead to very serious rate fluctuations, which is fraught for traders not only with big profits but also huge risks;
Next week, not only the US Federal Reserve but the Bank of England (Thursday, November 3) will publish its interest rate decision, however, analysts do not expect any surprises from it. As for their views regarding GBP / USD, about 70% of them are looking to the south, predicting the fall of the pair to the 1.2000 level, and, perhaps, 100 points lower. Indicators and the graphical analysis on D1 fully agree with this. The graphical analysis, however, does not exclude the fact that the pair can reach the resistance of 1.2250 before the fall. The next resistance is 1.2330;
USD / JPY. The experts haven’t had any consensus about the future of the pair for the fifth week in a row: 45% votes for the pair to rise to the area of 105.50-106.00, 25% – for its fall to the support of 102.80, and 30% – for a sideways trend. As for the indicators and graphical analysis, they suggest that the pair will try to move closer to the resistance of 105.50 and then fall down – firstly to the support of 104.00 and then even lower – to the area of 102.40-102.80. But, as in the two previous cases, it is necessary to remember about the important news from the USA as well as that on Tuesday, 1 November the Bank of Japan will publish its decision on interest rates;
With regard to the outlook for USD / CHF, here about 70% of analysts believe that the pair has to go back to the level of 1.0000. The remaining 30% say that it has not finished its temporary decline to the area of 0.9700-0.9800 yet. The graphical analysis on H4 agrees with this opinion. It believes that the fall may be even stronger, and the pair will reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680. There is also a third view, according to which, in connection with the mentioned above events, the pair will simply mirror the behavior of the pair EUR / USD, an inverse correlation of which is particularly noticeable during the periods of increased volatility.