Every year the OPEC cartel releases World Oil Outlook (WOO), an analytical forecast on the world energy consumption. This year has not become an exception. According to the current forecast, in four years the world demand for oil will increase to 102.3 million barrels per day.
This is 2.24 million barrels per day more than the last year’s forecast published by OPEC. The updated figures say: in the next four years, the annual increase in demand will be about 1.2 million barrels per day.
In addition to the forecast for the coming years, OPEC also has published a long-term outlook of the world oil demand (for the next 22 years – until 2040). According to this forecast, the world oil demand will be 111 million barrels per day by 2040. Purchases of black gold will not increase evenly; experts identify periods when the growth rates will slow down. The cartel analysts consider the insufficient GDP growth, some innovations in the field of energy efficiency as well as an increase in world oil prices to be the reasons of such periods of slowing down.
Developed countries that are the members of OECD will show a decrease in demand for oil in the long term by 9 million barrels per day. But, on the contrary, developing countries will increasingly require oil supplying. By 2040 oil demand will increase by 24 million barrels per day.
The analysts of the cartel agree that China and India will become the main consumers of energy resources by 2040. At the same time, the Celestial Empire will increase the oil consumption to 17.8 million barrels per day (so consumption will increase by 6 million barrels per day). The experts estimate the increase in the oil consumption by India at 5.9 million barrels per day.
Analysts unanimously note that in the next 20 years the focus will shift to natural gas. It is assumed that by 2040 the demand for blue fuel will increase by one third and will amount to 93 million barrels per day.
Both oil and gas in tandem will cover about half of the world’s energy needs.
The material was prepared with the participation of Andrey Majorov,
a leading analyst of the brokerage company CT Trade