Gasoline prices have fallen on SPIMEX. The average decline is 2-3%. According to experts, seasonal factors as well as the excess supply in the market caused the fall. So AI-92 has fallen to RUB 39.7 thousand per ton, AI-95 to RUB 41.8 thousand per ton.
The period from January to March of each year is traditionally considered to be a bad period for the gasoline market. However, this year the situation has become more acute than usual. Between December and January, fuel exports have decreased by 18%. This is primarily due to the closure of exports to Belarus. Moreover, the refinery was modernized in Kazakhstan, once one of the largest buyers. Due to this fact, there was no more procurement need.
The excess volume of unrealized gasoline has remained in the domestic market. This is about 150 thousand tons. The increase in fuel reserves was not only because of the reducing the sales market, but also due to the expectations of rising prices in early 2019.
Provided that the exchange rate of the Russian ruble and oil prices remain at the same levels, the situation will improve in February, when companies will reduce production volumes. As demand increases, prices will go up again and return to their usual values.
The material was prepared with the participation of Katya Gordon,
a leading analyst of the brokerage company CT Trade