In the July review of the world economy, the IMF has worsened the forecast for the growth of the Russian economy in the current year. The indicator was reduced by 0.4% to 1.2%. Pretty weak results for the first quarter caused the change in the forecast.
Despite the decline in the forecast for this year, the IMF believes that in 2020 Russia’s GDP will increase 1.9%. This is 0.2% more than predicted in April.
Regarding expectations for global GDP, the IMF predicts a 3.2% growth in the current year. According to the regulator, the gross product will increase by 3.5% in 2020.
Based on the data received this year, the Department states that inflation is generally slowing down, which indicates a decline in the economic activity. It is for this reason that the overall forecast has worsened.
The general forecast for emerging and developing economies was lowered by 0.3 points this year and by 0.1 points next year (to 4.1% and 4.7%, respectively).
According to the IMF, the economies of the CIS countries will grow by 1.9% this year and by 2.4% next year. As for their GDP (excluding the Russian Federation in 2019) the forecast indicates an increase of 3.5% this year and 3.7% next year.
And now there are some facts about China. The forecast for April was reduced by 0.1 points. In 2019, the economy growth of the Celestial Empire will amount to 6.2%, in 2020 – 6%. The growth estimates of the Indian economy have been reduced to 7% and 7.2% (in 2019-2020, respectively). The forecast for Brazil has been greatly reduced – by 1.3 points. The IMF believes that in 2019 the growth will total only 0.8%, in 2020 it will amount to 2.4%.
This year, the gross product of developed economies will grow by 1.9%, in 2020 – by 1.7%.
Expectations for the growth of the American economy have improved. This year it will be 2.6%, next year – 1.9%. In 2019, European GDP will increase 1.3%, in 2020 – 1.6%. For countries such as France and Italy, the forecast has remained at the same level. Due to the weakening of external demand, the forecast for Germany has worsened. For Spain, on the contrary, it has improved.
Expectations for the Japanese economy have been reduced – to 0.9% and 0.4% this and next year.
British GDP growth is projected at 1.3% this year and 1.4% in 2020.
The material was prepared with the participation of Katya Wilson,
a leading analyst of the brokerage company UFT Group