The International Energy Agency (IEA) has published a very interesting study. So, in the next five years, global oil demand will grow about 1 million b/d every year. This means that by 2025, the demand will be 103.5 million bpd (6.6 million bpd more than current figures).
Looking further into the future, the forecast of analysts claims that by 2030 the demand for oil will increase to 105.4 million b / d; in another ten years – to 106.4 million b / d.
It should be said then during 20 years, the demand in Europe may fall by 0.2 million bpd every year. This decrease is explained by lower interest in buying cars.
China will ensure the growth of world oil demand in the next five to ten years. This will happen due to the development of the petrochemical industry and aviation. It is estimated that by 2030, China’s consumption will be fixed at 15.6 million bpd. Experts believe that in ten years, the Celestial Empire will be able to fully provide the population with electric cars, which will significantly reduce the consumption of traditional fuel.
Another developing region is India. It is believed that the demand for oil over the next ten years will almost double there and by 2040 it will amount to 9 million b/d.
Over the decade, the United States should be ready for the decline in demand of 18% – to 15.1 million bpd.
The IEA has done a calculation (or rather, fantasized) on the topic of oil demand in the longer term. Experts believe that in just 30 years, the humanity will learn to consume half as much “black gold” as it does currently. It is believed that oil will meet the needs of the petrochemical industry and aviation, where it is yet technologically difficult to find alternative energy sources.
The material was prepared with the participation of Katya Wilson,
a leading analyst of the brokerage company UFT Group