The World Bank has presented its forecasts on the development of the global economy for the beginning of 2020. The review notes that the growth will be about 2.5%. At the same time, investments and trade will gradually recover. However, the risks for these indicators will continue.
World GDP will grow by 2.4%. Countries with developed economies will slow down their growth to 1.4% (from the current 1.6%). This will be due to the continued weakening of the manufacturing industry.
Developing countries, as well as emerging economies will show 4.1% growth in 2020. But the figure will not be widespread. Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, Vice President at the World Bank, notes that growth rates for these countries are likely to be small. In these conditions, they should carry out reforms stimulating the large-scale economic growth, which will contribute to the fight against poverty in this group of countries.
The World Bank considers aggravation in the field of trade policy and a sharp decline in the economies of the largest developing countries to be the main risks of the world economy. If we assume that their GDP will grow according to forecasts, then per capita indicators will still remain significantly below the average for recent years.
US GDP growth will drop to 1.8%. This will be the result of increased trade tension and the introduction of duties on the import of various goods.
The forecast for the EU for 2020 was changed; it decreased to 1% from 1.4%. The poor performance of the industry caused the change.
In 2020, Russia’s GDP will rise by 1.6%, in 2021 – by 1.8%.
The growth of the Chinese economy will slow down. In 2020, GDP will be 5.8%, in 2021 – 5.7%.
The Japanese economy will show the growth of 1.1%. In 2020, it will increase 1%, in 2021 and 2022 – 1.3%.
A large decrease is observed in forecasts for world trade in the period from 2019 to 2021. This year the indicator will grow by only 1.9%. The previous forecast was 3.2%. The forecast for trade growth in 2021 was reduced to 2.5% from 3.2%.
The World Bank believes that this year the oil price will lose more than 5%; in 2021, on the contrary, it will grow almost 2%.
The material was prepared with the participation of Katya Wilson,
a leading analyst of the brokerage company UFT Group